On August 9, 2008, the conflict in Georgia escalated. This TV photo taken on August 8 shows that Russian troops are heading for Tskhinvali, the capital of South Ossetia, Georgia. From the evening of the 7th to the morning of the 8th, there was another armed conflict between Georgian army and armed personnel of South Ossetia Autonomous Prefecture near Tskhinvali. Russian TV reported earlier on the 8th that Russian troops and tanks entered South Ossetia on the same day. On the evening of the 8th, Georgian President Saakashvili delivered a televised speech to the people, saying that Georgian troops had completely controlled Tskhinvali, the capital of South Ossetia. Xinhua News Agency/AFP
For more than a decade, the tense crisis between the two countries has occurred from time to time. However, every time I saw "dark clouds gathering", "rain" did not come down.
Since the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the contradictions, conflicts and confrontations between Russia and Georgia, two newly born countries, have almost never stopped, and there is an increasingly tense trend. From April to May, 2008, because the Georgian unmanned reconnaissance plane was shot down by the Abkhaz military in China, the government became furious and began to station a large number of troops in areas adjacent to Abkhazia, while Russia increased its peacekeeping forces to Abkhazia, claiming to severely respond to the possible aggression by Georgia. The two sides are so tense that some people describe the crisis situation of Russia-Georgia relations as "near the state of war" For more than a decade, similar situations have often occurred between the two countries. However, every time I saw "dark clouds gathering", "rain" did not come down.
The basic background of the relationship between the two countries
The Caucasus Mountains straddle the Black Sea and Caspian Sea from northwest to southeast, forming a part of the dividing line between Europe and Asia. The relationship between nations and countries on the north and south sides of the mountain range is complex and special. The northern part of the Caucasus Mountains is called the Inner Caucasus or the North Caucasus, and now it belongs to the southern region of Russia. There are North Ossetia-Alain Autonomous Republic and Ingushetia Republic, which have good relations with the Russian central government, Chechen Republic, which once had bad relations with the Russian central government, and Caraccia I-Celka Republic, Kabardino-Balkar Republic and Dagestan Republic. The south of the Caucasus is called Transcaucasia, also called South Caucasus, and there are three countries-Georgia with Orthodox Christianity as the main belief, Armenia with traditional Christianity as the main belief, and Azerbaijan with Islam and close ties with Iran. The Caucasus Mountains divide Eurasia into two parts, and it is also divided into two parts by different nationalities and countries, torn by different civilizations, different nationalities and different powers.
One is Abkhazia, which has close ties with Russia.
Among the three countries in Transcaucasia, Georgia has the most tense relationship with Russia. Georgia is a small country, with a land area of 0.41% of that of Russia. At the beginning of 2006, the total population was 3.1% of that of Russia. Why is the relationship between two countries with such a huge difference in size tense? There are undoubtedly many reasons, among which the most direct one is that Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia are too close to Russia.
Abkhazia is an autonomous Republic of Georgia, located on the Black Sea in northwest Georgia. Its capital is the coastal city of Sukhumi, which is very close to Sochi, a health resort in southern Russia. During the Soviet period, Stalin and other leaders built villas in Sochi. Economically, Sukhumi was the main producing area of tea and citrus in czarist Russia and Soviet Union. Abkhazia and the Black Sea coastal areas in southwestern Russia belong to a regional economic circle. In addition, Abkhazians converted to Christianity as early as the 6th century A.D., and were influenced by Islam after the rise of the Ottoman Empire in the 11th century, which made them closer to the North Caucasians in history, language and culture. Abkhazia’s economic and cultural exchanges with Russia are far closer than those with Tbilisi, the center of Georgia in the mountains. Because Abkhazians have a long-term pro-Russian tendency, Georgia often adopts repressive policies against them in language, culture and ethnic policies. Shortly after the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the independence of Georgia, Abkhazia also declared its independence in July 1992, and the Georgian central authorities sent troops to station, which triggered an armed conflict that lasted for more than a year, causing tens of thousands of casualties and half of the residents fleeing their hometowns. Under the mediation of Russia and the international community, the two parties to the conflict signed a ceasefire agreement in Moscow in May 1994. According to this agreement, Russian troops entered Abkhazia in the name of the CIS peacekeeping force. Since then, Russia has strengthened its ties with Abkhazia in various ways, such as simplifying the procedures for Abkhazians to join Russian nationality and reopening the railway to Sukhumi.Georgia imposed an economic blockade and embargo on Abkhazia. To this day, it is still the arena between Russia and Georgia.
One is South Ossetia, which has a love affair with Russia.
The close relationship between Ossetia and Russia is different from that in Abkhazia. Ossetia is divided into north and south. During the Soviet period, North Ossetia was originally only a district belonging to the Gore Autonomous Republic, but its status continued to improve, and it was upgraded to an autonomous prefecture and an autonomous Republic in 1924 and 1936. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, North Ossetia was upgraded to a republic of the Russian Federation.
South Ossetia is far behind its northern brothers in status. During the Soviet Union, although South Ossetia had autonomous status, it was only an autonomous prefecture of Georgia in administrative division. After Georgia’s independence, it is still an autonomous prefecture. Therefore, South Ossetia has always sought an independent status on an equal footing with Georgia and is not subject to the jurisdiction of the Georgian central government. As early as 1989, South Ossetia had an open conflict with the Georgian government, which lasted until the summer of 1992, causing a large number of casualties. In the meantime, South Ossetia not only declared its independence by referendum in January 1990, but also proposed to merge with the Russian Republic of North Ossetia. In June 1992, Russia, Georgia, South Ossetia and North Ossetia held talks on the peaceful settlement of armed conflicts and reached an agreement on a ceasefire, the establishment of a peacekeeping force and a supervisory committee. In July, a 1,500-member peacekeeping force composed of Russia, Georgia and South Ossetia established a security corridor on the border between South Ossetia and Georgia, which actually separated South Ossetia from Georgia. Considering the complicated international relations, Russia has neither recognized the independence of South Ossetia nor supported its merger with North Ossetia, but it has maintained close ties with it in secret. For example, most South Ossetians hold Russian passports, and rubles are widely circulated in the local area. In recent ten years, due to South Ossetia’s secret love for Russia, Russia and Georgia have not only quarreled, but sometimes even threatened each other with force.
There are also historical grievances.
In addition to the conflict of interests between Abkhazia and South Ossetia, there are historical reasons why the relationship between Russia and Georgia is difficult to straighten out. The relationship between them is extraordinary, and some scholars use the term "once brothers" and today’s "enemies" to describe them. Georgians established their own country earlier than Russia. However, in the first half of the 19th century, the Georgian country was annexed by Tsarist Russia. After the October Revolution, Georgia once declared its independence, but it was soon occupied by the Soviet Red Army. In February 1921, Georgia established the Soviet Socialist Republic, joined the Transcaucasian Soviet Socialist Federal Republic in March 1922, and joined the Soviet Union as a federal member at the end of the same year. In December 1936, Georgia was upgraded to a republic directly under the Soviet Union. Many important Soviet leaders, including Stalin, came from Georgia. Georgia was conquered in czarist Russia and subordinate in Soviet Union, but Georgians always have a lingering feeling of independence. Therefore, before the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Georgia issued a declaration of independence on November 4, 1990 and changed its name to "Republic of Georgia", and officially declared its independence on April 9, 1991. In order to erase the shadow of the past, the new constitution adopted by Georgia in August 1995 named the country "Georgia". After independence, Georgia actively approached the west.
Another big country’s gambling table.
There are also broader national factors that affect Russia-Georgia relations, that is, Georgia is actually a "gambling disk" for the game between western powers and Russia. Georgia is a small country, but geopolitics is very important. Western countries regard it as a base to squeeze and contain Russia’s strategic space from the south, while Russia, which has lost its traditional spheres of influence such as Central and Eastern Europe, the Balkans and the Baltic Sea, will certainly not easily let the wishful thinking of the West succeed. The great power struggle is reflected in Georgia, that is, the endless political struggle between pro-Russian and pro-Western factions. Behind the so-called "color revolution" in 2003 and the large-scale anti-government demonstrations in 2007, we can see the shadow of western countries and Russia. In order to squeeze out Russia, after two rounds of eastward expansion in 1997 and 2002, NATO began to brew a third round of eastward expansion this year. One of its main targets is Georgia, and nearly 73% of the people in Georgia want to join NATO. If Georgia and Ukraine join in again, NATO will push its forward position to the southwest and south of Russia, and form an encirclement trend in the southwest. Russia is deeply affected by the crisis, and its reaction is relatively strong, and it is considered as a "dangerous signal". Therefore, it not only shows its strength by resuming the routine combat duty flights of long-range strategic bombers over the Atlantic Ocean, the Arctic Ocean, the Pacific Ocean, the Black Sea and the Arctic region, but also threatens NATO and Georgia by increasing peacekeeping troops to Abkhazia and supporting the independence of South Ossetia. Now it seems that,Neither NATO nor Russia will give in, the game will continue, and Georgia’s relations with Russia will be even more difficult to get along with in the situation of internal and external troubles.
At present, it seems that it is difficult for Russia-Georgia relations to be fundamentally improved for a while, but it is unlikely that they will completely break down and all-out war will break out. Georgia has close economic ties with Russia, especially in the supply of basic energy such as electricity, oil and natural gas. Russia is now seeking to join the WTO, and Georgia is already a member of the organization. Russia can’t help but care. The situation in Transcaucasia is more complicated, and the relationship between major powers reflected here is also very complicated. For their own security and interests, Russia, western powers and Georgia will not act simply, and the disharmony between Russia and Georgia will continue.
Editor: Bo Du
